Competition News

Today
The forecast today predicted a day very similar to yesterday: Southern over-pressure + strong heating of the Rhine valley, leading to air coming over the Lukmanier pass to Disentis, and later also flow out of the southern valleys further to the East. Plus a high chance for thunderstorms from around noon, in general everything a little faster than yesterday.

To compensate that, we cut the planned task in half, only to Brigels instead of Flims. But before we even held the 10:00 task briefing, the wind in the Disentis landing hat already switched to South - 2.5 hours earlier than yesterday. This was most likely caused by the rain cell to the South that had started dropping its load a little before - also much earlier than predicted. So we had (light) Föhn, and the major risk factors (wind out of the Southern valleys, thunder storms) much earlier than expected - and therefore cancelled the task.

About half the field went up for a flight. Launch was demanding, with switching wind direction and gusts - we think it would not have been possible to get the whole field in the air in time for a fair race. Several pilots opted to take the chairlift back down. Those who did fly found good lift, for some up to 3000 m, and the run to Trun (safety landing) or even Brigels for those who dared flying the task was quite quick. Landing in those places was gusty, but OK. Those few who pushed on to Ilanz had to work a bit to get down in bumpy and windy conditions.

Since then conditions have calmed down in the sky - no more rain cells building up. The South wind is still quite strong here in Disentis and further down the valley. I think cancelling the task was the right call today, to leave enough safety margin for pilots who have less experience with flying in this area and in these kinds of conditions. I'd be interested in hearing what you, the pilots, think about that.

Outlook
As mentioned yesterday, conditions are quite volatile and difficult to predict. Every model has a different view on the upcoming days, and that view also changes from run to run. My impression for the rest of the week:
Tuesday: Latest forecasts now see the Southern over-pressure diminish tomorrow, and the air is drying out, which means mainly blue thermals, but also no more risk of thunderstorms. I think we will be able to fly a one-way task towards the East tomorrow.
Wednesday: Higher pressure to the North, at least at ground level. At altitude, the SW winds will stay with us a little while longer. Thunderstorms may develop in the second half of the day, but an early task towards the East should be possible.
Thursday: NW winds at altitude, normal valley breeze, risk of thunderstorms in the early afternoon. If those get delayed a little bit, we will have a great flying day.
Friday: NW winds at altitude, more clouds, weaker thermals, risk of thunderstorms in the late afternoon. Could still be a (slower) task day.
Saturday: SW winds at altitude, sunny, with cumulus clouds, could be another good day.

Next update tonight around 20:00